GoldDerby
Everything seemed to be going Emma Stone‘s way in this year’s Oscar race for Best Actress. But then Lily Gladstone staged a comeback by winning at the SAG Awards. So how has that affected our racetrack odds?
As of this writing, based on the combined predictions of thousands of Gold Derby users, Stone has the advantage with 17/5 odds for her outlandish “Poor Things” performance. Gladstone’s understated turn in “Killers of the Flower Moon” follows with 69/20 odds. But let’s dig into the stats to see what those odds really mean.
Stone is favored by 15 out of the 25 Expert journalists we’ve surveyed from major media outlets. Gladstone is backed by nine. But Gold Derby’s Editors who cover awards year-round go the opposite way: six predict Gladstone compared to five who predict Stone. Our Top 24 Users also slightly favor Gladstone: 12 pick her over 11 who pick Stone. But our All-Star Top 24 agree with the Experts: 13 pick Stone over 10 who pick Gladstone.


So it’s almost too close to call. Whose advice do you heed when no one seems to agree? Perhaps we can look to last year’s precedent. Best Actress followed a similar course then. Michelle Yeoh (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”) and Cate Blanchett (“Tár”) both won Golden Globes. Then Blanchett pulled ahead by also winning at the Critics Choice Awards and BAFTAs. But Yeoh struck back by winning the SAG Award and ultimately claimed the Oscar.
This year it’s Stone who won Globe, Critics Choice and BAFTA, while Gladstone has Globe and SAG. Like Blanchett, Stone is a multiple Oscar nominee and a past winner. And like Yeoh, Gladstone is a first-time Oscar nominee who would make history by winning (Yeoh was the first Asian Best Actress winner, Gladstone would be the first Native American winner). So if history repeats itself, it’s looking good for Gladstone. However, Yeoh was nominated by the BAFTAs and Gladstone wasn’t. Also, “Everything Everywhere” was on track to win Best Picture, while “Killers of the Flower Moon” doesn’t appear to be on that trajectory.
No two races are ever exactly alike because no two performances are ever the same. Which way do you think this competition will go?

Make your predictions at Gold Derby now. Download our free and easy app for Apple/iPhone devices or Android (Google Play) to compete against legions of other fans plus our experts and editors for best prediction accuracy scores. See our latest prediction champs. Can you top our esteemed leaderboards next? Always remember to keep your predictions updated because they impact our latest racetrack odds, which terrify Hollywood chiefs and stars. Don’t miss the fun. Speak up and share your huffy opinions in our famous forums where 5,000 showbiz leaders lurk every day to track latest awards buzz. Everybody wants to know: What do you think? Who do you predict and why?

Oscar voting concluded Tuesday evening and ballots are being counted as we speak. Gold Derby editors and Experts Christopher Rosen and Joyce Eng are here to discuss some anonymous ballots, the heated Best Actress race between Lily Gladstone (“Killers of the Flower Moon”) and Emma Stone (“Poor Things”). Click the photo above to watch the video.

Watch our lively chats with Lily Gladstone (“Killers of the Flower Moon”) and over 70 more of the 2024 Oscar nominees…
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Take a trip back to the Academy Awards ceremonies of the recent past with Gold Derby’s Oscars Playback series. Hosts Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen recap every Oscar ceremony of the 1990s and 2000s. Joyce and Chris tackle the highs and lows of each show and see how the winners aged. It’s a wonderful night for Oscar, whenever you watch!
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